Publishing Trends: 2024 Edition

2023 Recap: Slowing Growth and Industry Shifts

Let's begin with a recap of 2023's trends. In 2023, the publishing industry saw a marked slowdown in digital subscription growth, ending a cycle that began in 2015. While some viewed this as a temporary dip, others considered it the peak before a permanent decline. Print media continued to struggle, with circulation dropping significantly, especially for regional and local newspapers. Digital-only players like Buzzfeed and Vice News also faced financial difficulties, despite growth in global digital services like Netflix and YouTube.

Alongside this, GAFA (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon) companies faced financial turbulence, layoffs, and increasing regulatory pressure. Google and Meta responded differently to new copyright laws: Meta blocked news content in certain countries, while Google struck agreements with publishers. Meanwhile, podcasts, which had seen rapid growth, also experienced a plateau due to profitability concerns, with platforms like Spotify cutting investments.

2024 Publishing Trends: Print Declines, Subscriptions Grow, Peak vs Inflex Debate Continues

In 2024, the landscape is quite similar to what we saw in 2023. The trend of print media decline continues in 2024, especially in daily newspapers. U.S. print circulation dropped by 14%, and the UK saw regional newspapers lose a quarter of their sales compared to 2007. While digital subscriptions are still growing, they are not enough to compensate for the loss of print revenue. And digital only is not always a success as the downfall of pure digital players like Buzzfeed and Vice has shown. However, according to INMA forecasts, global events like elections and major sports events are expected to drive a 14% growth in subscriptions.

The question remains whether the digital subscription boom has peaked. Supporters of the "inflexion" theory, like INMA's Greg Piechota, argue that many publishers still have untapped subscriber potential. Success stories such as the New York Times—which added 1 million subscribers in 2023—show that growth is possible, especially when offering bundled services beyond daily news. In contrast, others believe the industry is seeing the inevitable decline of print in favor of video content, particularly among younger audiences. YouTube’s increasing dominance and the rise of platforms like TikTok are forcing publishers to rethink how they engage with younger readers.

Restructures, Acquisitions, and Ownership Pressures Increase

The publishing sector is undergoing significant restructuring. Companies like Schibsted and Axel Springer have separated their media and classified ad businesses, while others, such as DPG Media, are expanding into television. At the same time, the issue of billionaire ownership is creating challenges. For example, The Washington Post, owned by Jeff Bezos, is cutting jobs to stem losses, and in France, the owners of La Provence and Le Monde are taking steps to protect their editorial independence.

AI's Rapid Rise in Publishing

AI is revolutionizing the publishing world, with major tech players like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Google investing heavily in AI capabilities. For publishers, AI is already enhancing translation, making content more accessible worldwide, and providing "Text to Speech" services that turn articles into audio. More controversially, AI is replacing certain types of journalism, like content summarization. Some outlets including Onclusive in France and Axel Springer’s Upday have already laid off journalists in favor of AI.

While AI offers opportunities, it also raises significant challenges, particularly around copyright. Publishers are increasingly blocking their content from being used to train AI models - for example, the New York Times is suing OpenAI over its use of its content to train AI.

Print Decline Continues, but Niche Titles Persist

Print media’s decline continues to be most severe in daily newspapers, with some outlets abandoning weekend or full print editions altogether. However, certain segments—especially high-quality, niche publications—are managing to survive by offering print as a premium product or focusing on specific interests, like travel or nature magazines. Local publishers are also finding success with free monthly print editions to maintain subscriber loyalty.

Magazines and Podcasts: Adapting in a Digital World

Magazines continue to evolve. While circulation has sharply declined in the past 20 years, some segments, like long-form journalism and niche topics, are still thriving. Digital strategies that enhance brand value, like the success of Dotdash Meredith and Les Echos Le Parisien, show that publishers are successfully using their online presence to drive revenue.

Podcasting, while still popular, has faced profitability challenges. In 2023, Spotify and other major players reduced investments due to the unprofitable nature of the market. Despite this, some publishers are trying new monetization models, such as bundling podcast access with subscriptions.

New Business Models: Diversification and Paywalls

Publishers are diversifying their revenue streams in response to financial pressures. Some are expanding into travel, training, and even launching physical products. The subscription model is still growing, particularly in sectors like streaming, but publishers must balance pricing and retention strategies to stay profitable. Paywalls are becoming more dynamic, with AI-based models helping publishers better understand which customers are likely to pay.

Conclusion

In 2024, the publishing industry faces continued disruption, with print media in decline and digital subscriptions unable to fully compensate for lost revenue. AI and video content are emerging as key areas for innovation, but publishers must adapt to changing consumer behaviors and increasing regulatory pressures. Diversification, new business models, and increased independence from tech giants will be crucial to navigating the ongoing transformation of the industry.